Kenya is facing a worrying spike in HIV infections just as the world marks World AIDS Day under the theme “Overcoming Disruption, Transforming the AIDS Response.” New national data shows rising transmission rates, particularly from mothers to infants, threatening progress toward ending AIDS as a public health threat by 2030.
The Kenya AIDS Response Progress Report 2025 reveals that mother-to-child transmission has climbed above 9 percent, the highest rate seen in recent years. Nairobi leads in new adult infections, while several arid and semi-arid counties are reporting record numbers of infants born with HIV.
Sharp Rise in Mother-to-Child HIV Transmission
After years of being hailed as a regional HIV success story, Kenya is now confronting a steep regression. Ministry of Health data shows mother-to-child transmission rising from 7.3 percent in 2023 to 9.3 percent in 2024, nearly double the global benchmark of 5 percent.
Eight counties — Wajir, Mandera, Isiolo, Samburu, Garissa, Baringo, Marsabit and Kilifi — recorded transmission levels above 20 percent, the highest in more than 15 years. In these areas, one in every five infants born to HIV-positive mothers becomes infected at birth.
The National Syndemic Diseases Control Council (NSDCC) warns that low antenatal attendance and a preference for home deliveries, especially in northern Kenya, are the key drivers of the surge.
Douglas Bosire, NSDCC: “The main driver in northern Kenya is extremely low antenatal care attendance and a strong preference for home deliveries.”
The council notes that missed antenatal visits disrupt early HIV prevention and leave mothers and infants vulnerable, especially during breastfeeding.
Bosire: “Most do not complete the ANC process, and many babies end up contracting HIV during breastfeeding.”
Urban Centres Also Recording High Infection Rates
While rural and arid regions struggle with access to healthcare, Nairobi — which has the largest population of people living with HIV — now reports the highest number of new infections nationwide.
More than half of all HIV cases are concentrated in just seven counties. However, NSDCC notes that population density plays a major role.
Bosire: “When compared to population size, the numbers still reflect the national prevalence rate of around 3 percent.”
Kenya Ramps Up Measures to Protect Women, Adolescents
Government agencies say they are adopting a whole-of-society approach to reverse the trend, with a strong focus on adolescents, young women and girls — groups that remain disproportionately affected by HIV.
Public health experts warn that the recent uptick reflects deeper issues within the HIV care continuum, including inequality, poverty, gender-based vulnerability and limited access to healthcare.
The NSDCC says Kenya will intensify targeted interventions in high-risk regions, including:
- Tracing pregnant women for early care
- Expanding antenatal care access
- Reducing mother-to-child transmission to 5 percent by 2027
But with the 2030 AIDS-free target just five years away, Kenya is racing against time to reverse the rising trends.